Critical Thinking and Philosophy
Logical fallacies, mental models, and philosophical tools for navigating a complex world.
Common errors in reasoning and how to counter them
"You can't trust his climate research — he drives an SUV."
Attacking the person making the argument rather than the argument itself. A scientist's lifestyle doesn't invalidate their peer-reviewed research. The most common fallacy in online discourse. Counter: "That may be true about them personally, but what about the evidence they presented?"
"You want to reform policing? So you want criminals running free?"
Distorting someone's position into an extreme version and then attacking that distortion. Nobody argued for "no police" — they argued for reform. Counter: "That's not what I said. Let me clarify my actual position."
"A Nobel Prize winner in physics says this economic policy is wrong."
Citing an expert outside their area of expertise. A physics Nobel laureate has no special insight into economics. Legitimate appeal to authority requires the expert to be speaking within their field AND there to be consensus among experts in that field.
"You're either with us or against us."
Presenting only two options when more exist. Most complex issues have a spectrum of positions. Counter: identify the missing options. "Actually, I support parts of both positions, and here's a third option you haven't considered."
"I've already invested $50,000 in this startup — I can't quit now."
Continuing a course of action because of past investment (time, money, effort) rather than future prospects. Past costs are gone regardless. The rational question is: "Knowing what I know now, would I start this today?" If no, cut your losses.
Frameworks for better decision-making
Break a problem down to its most fundamental truths and reason up from there, rather than reasoning by analogy (doing what others do). Musk used this to realize rockets could be built for 2% of existing costs by buying raw materials instead of finished components. Ask: "What do we know to be absolutely true?" Then build up.
Instead of asking "How do I succeed?", ask "How would I guarantee failure?" Then avoid those things. Want a good marriage? List everything that destroys marriages (contempt, lack of communication, financial dishonesty) and avoid them. Often more actionable than positive advice.
First-order thinking: "This action has this result." Second-order: "...and then what happens?" Rent control (first order): cheaper rent. Second order: landlords stop maintaining buildings, developers stop building, housing supply shrinks, and rents rise everywhere else. Always ask "and then what?" at least twice.
Three practices: 1) Steelman, don't strawman — before disagreeing, articulate the strongest version of the opposing argument. If you can't, you don't understand it well enough. 2) Seek disconfirming evidence — actively look for information that contradicts your beliefs. 3) Think in probabilities, not certainties — instead of "I'm right," think "I'm 70% confident." This keeps you open to updating your views.
Stoicism teaches emotional regulation (Marcus Aurelius ran the Roman Empire with it). Ethics helps navigate moral dilemmas at work. Logic training helps detect manipulation in advertising and politics. Epistemology (how we know things) is essential for evaluating news and scientific claims. Philosophy isn't abstract — it's the operating system for how you think about everything else.
For beginners: "Thinking, Fast and Slow" (Kahneman) — how cognitive biases shape decisions. "The Scout Mindset" (Galef) — why truth-seeking beats opinion-defending. "Meditations" (Marcus Aurelius) — practical Stoic philosophy in diary form. For deeper dives: "Rationality" (Pinker), "The Art of Thinking Clearly" (Dobelli), "Sophie's World" (Gaarder) for philosophy overview.
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